But will the ruling be broad enough to truly return safety and integrity to the competition?
In oral arguments in late January the justices heard three hours of appeals from transgender advocates in Idaho and West Virginia and seemed poised to side with eligibility based on the biological distinction.
Among the two cases being evaluated, one originated in Idaho, which gave Trump 66.9% of its vote in 2024, where Lindsay Hecox, a biological male, argued the state’s Fairness in Women’s Sports Act violates the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment.
The law is wrong by excluding biological males from girls’ sports, even those who have undergone hormone therapy to mitigate biological advantages, he says.
The state contends that birth sex is a necessary divide to ensure fair and safe competition, arguing that physical changes associated with male puberty persist despite attempts at medical transition.
In the West Virginia case the plaintiff, a biological boy recognized in court filings as B.P.J., argues that West Virginia’s Save Women’s Sports Act constitutes sex discrimination under Title IX.
Supporters of girls’ athletics say a ruling that truly protects girls would have to be broad in scope.
“How broad is it going to be? Specifically, is the court going to rule that states simply have the right to pass laws protecting girls and girls' sports? Or are they going to say, ‘no, actually, the federal Civil Rights Statute Title IX mandates that all states respect girls and girls' sports?’” Brad Dacus, founder and president of Pacific Justice Institute, told AFN.
Twenty-six states right now have laws protecting girls’ sports.
A simple recognition of those laws would also allow blue states to write laws that embrace boys in girls’ sports.
“That is the concern,” Dacus said.
He’s hopeful it won’t be realized.
“We at Pacific Justice Institute are cautiously optimistic that the decision will be, in fact, broader than just applying to those states that have already adopted protective statutes for girls and girls' sports.”
PJI has been active in support of both West Virginia and Idaho in their current cases.
Title IX, the landmark women’s rights legislation of 1972, was passed to prohibit sex-based discrimination in any federally funded education program.
Although widely known today for its impact on athletics, the original statute made no explicit mention of sports.
Now more than 50 years later, the sex-discrimination aspect of the legislation meant to protect girls is being twisted by biological males preferring to dress like females.
“Title IX is very clear. It was passed specifically to protect girls and girls' sports so girls would be able to play basketball without having to compete against boys' basketball and to give them the same opportunity for athletic competition,” Dacus said.
The ruling likely will also impact girls’ private spaces like locker rooms and restrooms.
Blue states and red states have drawn their lines in the sand on the issue.
Basically, all that’s left for the Supreme Court is to add its modern-day stamp to existing law, Dacus said.
A possible blue state response
Hopefully that will happen, but the other side won’t necessarily end its crusade.
“Blue states have become so radical to the agenda of the Left that they could very well try to pass legislation to try to get around it, maybe by defining biological male and biological female differently than what the Supreme Court implicitly recognizes in a decision,” Dacus said.
That could be done, conceivably, by a state legally defining female to include a biological male who has at least begun gender-manipulation procedures or treatments.
“These are the kinds of things that blue states may attempt to do. Politically, it would make absolutely no sense for them to do so but rather let the issue lie and comply with the Supreme Court decision. The overall majority of Americans support protecting girls in girl sports,” Dacus said.
Recent polling — Gallup at 69% of U.S. adults and Pew Research Center at 66% — show almost 7-in-10 Americans favor limiting girls’ sports to biological girls.
Gallup’s breakdown showed independent voters favoring no boys in girls’ sports at 72%. Even Democrats (41%) approached 50%, while Republicans were at 90%.
“This issue is not a winner for those in the blue states pushing these radical policies,” Dacus said.
