The National Weather Service says there is a risk of Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) through the end of August for portions of the Central and Southern Plains and the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley given recent dryness, hot temperatures and expected below-normal rainfall.
The National Drought Mitigation Center explains there are four types of droughts: agricultural, hydrological, meteorological, and sociological. The first three deal with ways to measure drought as a physical phenomenon; the last tracks the effects of water shortages on socioeconomic systems.
Climatologist David Legates of the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation says the U.S. Drought Monitor and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are good resources.
"They keep track of the El Nino process," he says of the NOAA. "The Climate Prediction Center tries to come up with monthly forecasts, so, what's going to happen in September, October, November, December [and] what the winter is going to look like."
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the developing El Nino is strengthening rapidly and carries an 80% to 90%+ chance of reaching "very strong" or historic strength by late fall and early winter 2026–27. It has the potential to rank among the most powerful events recorded since 1950.
Legates says El Nino generally does not affect much in North America in the summer; it really kicks in in the fall and winter.
"If El Nino fires up and becomes a very strong El Nino … the usual signature is the southern tier of states gets precipitation, and the northern tier of states dries out," he explains. "That's sort of good and bad. Good because the southern Colorado River area gets a lot of snowfall, potentially, and that's going to help the water that gets diverted from the Colorado to Southern California."
Noting that Lake Powell, a man-made water reservoir on the Colorado River, is at its lowest level ever, Legates says the increased precipitation from a strong El Nino could help.
