The recently released 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a below average season with 8-14 named storms, with 3-6 of those hurricanes, with 1-3 of those major hurricanes.
Colorado State released its outlook in April and called for somewhat below-normal activity with 13 named storms.
El Nino is expected to be a big factor in possibly keeping the season below average by increasing wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean, which can tear potential systems apart. AFN reported previously how the El Nino could affect this year’s hurricane season.
NOAA Administrator Dr. Neil Jacobs says new technology this year will help forecasts.
"We have uncrewed aircraft systems. We tested these over the last couple of years with Black Swift drones, used operationally this year for the first time in the HAFS (Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System) model,” says Jacobs. “The test that we ran in the experiments last year showed that the inclusion of this data from these drones increased the intensity forecast accuracy by roughly 10%."
New AI forecast models are also being deployed, as well as advances in traditional models. High resolution flood inundation mapping will also be debuted.
Jacobs says this will help emergency managers visualize predicted inundation at the street and neighborhood level.
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham says many people falsely think they will have plenty of time to prep for a storm.
“They rapidly intensify. They get here quickly. Everybody, you think you might have a week on your timeline. The reality is you may only have days. That's why that preparedness early is absolutely everything,” says Graham. “I will repeat that in this position, next position, retirement. I don't care what it is over the next 20 years. I'm going to keep repeating that stat constantly.”
Graham also says that every category five hurricane that's made landfall in the U.S. was a tropical storm or less, three days out.
