In a compilation of polls, eight in all, the “RCP Average” at RealClearPolitics shows Democrat James Talarico with a 1-point lead over Ken Paxton, his Republican opponent.
Even though Talarico has a slight lead in the RCP Average, he leads Paxton in four polls while Paxton leads Talarico in three others. They are tied in the eighth poll, AFN found.
Paxton, 63, is the Texas attorney general whose political history includes serving in the Texas House and Texas Senate. Accused of abusing his power as attorney general, he was impeached by the GOP-led Texas House but acquitted by the Texas Senate after a trial in 2023.
The veteran Texas politician is also dogged by an longtime affair with a state Senate aide, Laura Olson, which he has admitted to. That affair and his alleged cover-up was part of the misconduct allegations during the impeachment trial. His wife, Angela, filed for divorce in 2025.
Despite that political baggage, Paxton trounced Sen. John Cornyn for the Republican nomination 63%-36% in the May primary.
In his last re-election, in 2022, Paxton won 53%-43% over Rochelle Garza, a civil rights attorney.
Talarico, 37, is a baby-faced state representative whose District 50 includes portions of uber-liberal Austin. He is a Harvard graduate and a graduate of a liberal seminary, Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary.
In the May primary, Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett 52%-46% to advance to the General Election.
Thanks largely to social media, Talarico has been exposed for outrageous and controversial comments that mix religion and politics. He has called God “nonbinary” and used Jesus’s mother, Mary, to defend abortion and “bodily autonomy.” He has also suggested white churchgoers can’t relate to the “much deeper” struggles of black churchgoers.
Talarico has also been mocked by meat-eating Texans for bragging about his “non-meat” campaign events, in 2022, during his re-election campaign for state senate.
During the current U.S. Senate campaign, Talarico is being mocked for driving a rented pickup truck, and wearing a cowboy hat, for a political ad.
Gary Bauer, chairman of the the Campaign for Working Families, told American Family News he believes the Senate race is being viewed as a contest between a Republican candidate with personal baggage versus a friendly-looking Democrat.
With the Senate majority at stake, Bauer said, the race is not about who would make a better guest for dinner.
“Good grief, man, the country's at stake,” he said.
Asked for comment about the Paxton-Talarico race, Blaze host Steve Deace predicted Paxton will win despite the midterms being difficult for the Republican Party overall.
"James Talarico is not just on the record being a flaming heretic, but he also views much of Texas' cultural identity to be anathema," Deace told AFN.
