The good news in the U.S.-Israel relationship comes from the Republican side, Dr. A.J. Nolte, of Regent University’s Robertson School of Government, said on "Washington Watch" Monday.
He cited a recent Washington Free Beacon/Echelon Insights survey which found that 68% of likely GOP primary voters favor complete or strong support for Israel, with 74% approving of President Donald Trump's handling of the U.S.-Israel relationship.
Nolte described Republican support for Israel as "robust" even with a slight decline among younger voters.
"There's been a little bit of erosion among Gen Z, which we all kind of knew, but it's not just that Israel is an issue that a lot of Republicans still feel strongly about and still support, but it is an important issue. It is in some ways an exception. Even those who don't support interventionism generally on the Republican side still support Israel," Nolte said.
Whether weakening Gen Z support has "staying power" remains to be seen, he said.
The problem in the U.S.-Israel relationship, as Nolte sees it, is the rise of socialism in Democratic primaries this summer.
Republicans currently hold a six-seat majority. Rep. Kevin Kiley, of California, is an independent who caucuses with Republicans.
There are four vacancies due to resignations or deaths.
Democrats need to gain a net of three districts to win a majority in the chamber. Meanwhile, Republicans can lose no more than two districts to retain a majority in the chamber.
The Cook Political Report on Wednesday showed 26 leaning Republican, 23 leaning Democrat with 18 seats considered toss-ups.
In a closely contested election, whichever party wins the House will likely have a slim majority.
This summer, the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and allies of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have secured high-profile primary wins in New York, Colorado and Washington, D.C.
The summer winners all share a platform of ending U.S. military aid to Israel and have made statements that critics characterize as anti-Israel or antisemitic.
A potential House Democratic leadership team would likely need the backing of DSA candidates to advance their agenda.
"So, a narrow Democratic majority is going to be dependent on these anti-Israel DSA folks, which means they can make a lot of mischief for the U.S.-Israel relationship if they take the House," Nolte said.
A growing awkwardness within the relationship isn't only due to Democratic Socialists.
The war with Iran has created a rift within the administration. Nolte noted that factions have emerged. One group backs Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (shown in AP file photo above) in the belief that the Iranians won't honor any peace deal, no matter what it says, and that a tougher U.S. stance is necessary.
Another faction thinks a deal can be had and sees Netanyahu as an obstacle to peace.
"The one thing that I think works to the benefit of Israel in this sense is that they happen to be correct. It helps when you're having an internal argument in the administration that the Israelis are on the factually right side of this, as we've just seen vividly demonstrated with Iran attacking these ships in the Straits of Hormuz," Nolte said.
Iran is going to do what it does
Trump would like the advice he receives from Netanyahu to be correct 100% of the time, which isn't the case, Nolte said.
The rise of socialism within the Democratic Party could impact the U.S.-Israel relationship, depending on how elections play out, but Nolte believes the two nations will remain strong allies at least for the remainder of the Trump administration.
In a twist of fate, the Iranians will seal the relationship.
"There's some erosion, I think, but I don't necessarily see things drifting away simply because Iran is going to do what Iran is going to do, and that validates the Israelis' arguments," Nolte said.
