Regardless of party, the top two finishers of California's upcoming "jungle primary" will face off in November.
Republican Steve Hilton has consistently led the polls, but unless fellow Republican Chad Bianco can finish second, making it an all-Republican general election matchup, political observers are skeptical that the GOP can win.
"There's no way the Republicans would be able to win if one of the Democrats was on the November ballot," says Craig Huey, a political pundit, author and speaker who spent much of his life in California and keeps up with its politics.
"The unions since 2018-19 have trained and organized like an army," he adds. "They know how to do ballot harvesting better than anyone."
Huey says the Democrats' poor governance does not matter. Californians have seen and experienced the failed policies, the socialism and the "disastrous results" that have happened under Democratic Governors Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom, "but despite that, the Republicans do not have the ability to get people out to vote, and the Democrats do."
According to a recent survey, the top primary finishers are Steve Hilton (R) and Xavier Bacerra (D), who are tied for first with around 18% support.
Chad Bianco (R) is in third place with 14%, and Democrat Tom Steyer is the only other candidate in double digits (12%). Katie Porter (D) and the others typically poll in the single digits.
Conservatives had hoped that Bianco would hold the No. 2 spot, ensuring California would have a Republican governor, but as Jenna Ellis predicted last month, Eric Swalwell suspending his campaign has benefitted the top Democratic candidate in this race.
Hilton, a former Fox News host, has received the endorsement of President Donald Trump, and though the overwhelming majority of Trump-backed candidates won their primaries last week, Huey confesses he is "a little pessimistic about California being turned."
California's primary elections are June 2.
