Republican Josie Tomkow was expected to win the Florida Senate District 14 special election to replace incumbent Jay Collins, who vacated the seat when Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed him to serve as the state's lieutenant governor. But she lost to Democrat Brian Nathan by 408 votes.
In a special election for House District 87, which includes President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence, Democrat Emily Gregory defeated Republican financial adviser Jon Maples 51%-49%.
Jenna Ellis points out that both of these were special elections, so the turnout was very low among both Republicans and Democrats.
"Republicans are hoping to flip the seats back in November," she notes. "But this is really going to depend on the August 18th primary for Florida governor. That's the biggest race that everyone here in Florida is keeping their eyes on."
Gov. Desantis is not running for re-election because Florida law prohibits a person from serving more than two consecutive terms as governor. His second term ends in January 2027.
Ellis is concerned about more depressed GOP turnout in November because of the potential winner of that gubernatorial primary.
"Byron Donalds the congressman is who President Trump has endorsed, but he is very, very disliked and deeply unpopular among Floridians, particularly because he refused to help Gov. DeSantis last year defeat Amendments Three and Four, which were very important to Florida conservatives," Ellis recalls. "This was legalizing recreational marijuana, which thankfully was defeated, as well as Amendment Four, which was the abortion tourism amendment."
Though Florida still has pockets of Democratic strength, it began shifting from a Democratic stronghold to a Republican-leaning state in the 1960s, becoming a solid Republican state in statewide offices roughly since Rick Scott's election as governor in 2010.
Both of the state's U.S. Senate seats have been held by Republicans since 2019, and Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers of the Florida Legislature. Trump also won The Sunshine State in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections.
