A Gallup poll earlier this month lists the economy as the No. 1 concern among voters with 52% calling it "extremely important," with another 38% rating it "very important." Second is the somewhat vague category of Democracy in the U.S.
Terrorism and the immigration – which can be linked by a southern border mostly unchecked during the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration – come in third and fifth respectively on the list with Supreme Court justices in between.
“I can honestly tell you that Donald Trump is polling better right now than he did in either of those last two elections, and it's not even close,” Marc Lotter, the communications director of the America First Policy Institute and a former Trump staffer, said on American Family Radio Tuesday.
The Real Clear Polling average has Harris up 1.7% in the general vote, but more important is the path to 270 electoral votes. That’s where Trump has a slight edge. RCP has Trump ahead 48.3% to Harris’ 47.9% when all battlegrounds are combined. Both races are well within the margin for error.
Lotter says it’s not so important that Trump be ahead in polling.
“Let’s go to 2024 Wisconsin. Kamala Harris right now is up three tenths of a point, but in 2020 Joe Biden was up 6.3%. Hillary Clinton was up 6%. So, Harris is six points behind where we were right now, and that state came down to about 20,000 votes. You can't be six points back in a state that came down to 20,000 votes. [In] Pennsylvania, Donald Trump is up 0.3, but Joe Biden was up 6.4, and Hillary Clinton was up 8.2,” Lotter told show host Jenna Ellis.
As in Wisconsin, Trump has a 6- to 8-point difference in Pennsylvania, a state that came to tens of thousands of votes.
It’s a similar story in Michigan. Trump leads by 0.9%, but … “Joe Biden was up seven points. Hillary was up by 11 – and she lost the state, by the way,” Lotter noted.
You can move the puzzle pieces in different ways. Lotter sees one Trump path as Pennsylvania, southern states North Carolina and Georgia. Trump split those states in 2020, losing a contentious Georgia race with Biden getting 49.47% of the vote to Trump’s 49.24%. North Carolina was also close with Trump winning 49.0% to 48.7%.
Hurricane issues in those states – specifically North Carolina, where thousands remain without power after Helene swept through on Sept. 26 – could negatively impact either candidate. Much is made of the relief response time from the Biden-Harris administration, but there’s also a belief that voters in North Carolina’s red districts will struggle to get to the polls.
The Democrats’ plan to never lose again
While Trump and Harris battle for votes from state to state, the number of migrants crossing the southern border has led to crime and changed the complexion of cities in Texas and many other states.
The National Border Patrol Council announced its endorsement of Trump during his rally in Prescott Valley, Arizona on Sunday, where NBPC president Paul Perez told the crowd:
“America, I have a message for you. If we allow Border Czar Harris to win this election, every city, every community in this great country is going to go to Hell. The untold millions of unvetted people who she has allowed into this country, that are committing murders, rapes, robberies, burglaries, and every other crime, will continue to put our country in peril. Only one man can fix that. That is Donald J. Trump.”
Former U.S. senator and Texas gubernatorial candidate Don Huffines told Ellis that crime is definitely increasing and the cost of illegals is "through the roof," particularly for taxpayers in Texas, which has 64% of the U.S. border with Mexico.
“We’re spending billions of dollars … on illegal immigration, whether it's education, healthcare or incarceration," he described.
Huffines says Mexico should share the blame for the border, noting that its armed forces could prevent crossings, but ultimately the crisis is a political initiative by Democrats.
“They feel like these [migrants] are Democrat voters, and they're going to give them amnesty. This is a premeditated attack by the Left in Washington and teamed up with the leftists in Mexico City to turn Texas blue to make sure the Democrats win Texas.
“Politics is always about demographics – it just is. They will turn Texas blue, and when they do that they will never lose the presidency of the United States of America. It’s really quite that simple.”
Will wallet voting win the day?
Traditionally, voters of very diverse opinions have been able to find common ground with the economy. Few are set up to escape impact from the price of gas and groceries set in motion by Biden-Harris policies.
Tho Bishop, content director for the Mises Institute, told Ellis the economy is still a power campaign issue in spite of the organized effort to detract from it. The close polling, he said, may indicate that real-world issues are losing out to ideological battles driven by the media.
“Or you can look at the other side of it and just think of how much money, how much attention, how the most powerful institutions in America have been determined to push a very one-sided political agenda, how much effort has been put into it," he continued.
"And yet it's still not working because of these reality issues that people feel every time they go to the grocery store or when they feel they are not walking around safely in their neighborhoods.
“I’m choosing the optimistic side and looking at the latter,” Bishop concluded.
