According to the poll, conducted Sept. 22-24, Harris has an 8-point lead over Trump among likely voters. Harris leads Trump 52%-44% in the poll that was conducted by Emerson College in collaboration with several media outlets.
"This poll is probably one of those so-called outliers," says Jeff Katz, a Richmond-based radio show host.
Katz says another recent poll, done by the University of Mary Washington, shows the Democrat presidential nominee with a narrower 2-point lead over the Republican nominee.
UMW, based in Fredericksburg, surveyed 1,000 likely voters for its poll that showed Harris with a 48%-46% lead over Trump.
Katz acknowledges that every poll shows Harris leading Trump, but his view is her lead is much smaller than believed.
"Talking with people that I know, inside both Democrat and Republican operations,” he advises, “the inside polling seems to show that it's very, very close."
On the RealClearPolitics website, its average of five polls – including the Emerson poll and UMW – shows Harris with a 5.2% lead over Trump.
According to official results, Joe Biden defeated Trump 54%-44%, a 10-point gap, in the 2020 election. Hillary Clinton won Virginia, too, with a narrow 49%-44% victory, in 2016.
In 2021, Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin narrowly won the governor’s race with a 50%-48% win over Democrat Terry McAuliffe.
Virginia has 13 electoral votes making it one of 21 states with a double-digit number of them.
