The Middle East dives further into a quagmire as the 50-year-old regime of Bashar al-Assad collapsed, which provides the Syrians “a moment of historic opportunity,” according to President Joe Biden. However, many dark days are ahead for that war-ravaged country, the region and perhaps the United States.
“At long last, the Assad regime has fallen,” President Biden said in a White House briefing. However, the departure of the Assad family does not mean Syria will become democratic or peaceful anytime soon. More likely, if similar ousters across the region are any indication, more civil war is on the horizon as various factions fragment the country and neighbors try to influence the outcome to advance their interests.
The ouster of the rule by the Assad family and his exile to Russia comes on the heels of 14 years of civil war, which claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. The rebel forces now in Damascus, mostly the Free Syrian Army (FSA), are being contested by the jihadist and former al Qaeda-aligned group, Hayat Tahir as-Shams (HTS), which is backed by neighbor Republic of Türkiye (Turkey). Meanwhile, Syrian government forces abandoned their weapons and uniforms, and either escaped the country or melted into the population.
Over the weekend, foreign ministers from Iran, Türkiye, and Russia met in Doha to discuss the development. Evidently, those ministers called for a return to the political process under United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254, which seeks to end the Syrian civil war and achieve a political transition. Don’t count on peace much less a quick political solution to the chaos and the various factions aren’t waiting for the United Nations to help.
The competing factions vying for power are significant and varied. The FSA is a coalition of groups primarily from southern Syria, which are backed by various Arab states including Jordan and Saudi Arabia as well as the United States. However, Syria’s political and military situation collapsed mostly thanks to the Türkiye-backed HTS’ offensive that resulted in the capture of a series of cities beginning with Aleppo and then Damascus. Meanwhile, Iran, Russia and Hezbollah are weakened by broader, regional challenges – and yet they are not about to give up their hold on portions of the country, such as access to naval and air bases.
Now, expect Syria to host a contested, likely violent process among rebel factions each seeking their territorial and political interests. Perhaps elections will eventually take place, which could momentarily postpone infighting as each rebel group carves up the country to include the U.S.-backed Kurdish group, the Syrian Democratic Forces. However, negotiations over the final form of the Damascus government and its postwar constitution will be slow in coming, if ever.
In the long run, it is likely the fall of Assad will result in a fragmented and unstable Syria, particularly if outside forces interfere with the transition. Unfortunately, the HTS, FSA and SDF are unlikely to find a power-sharing solution because of their opposing ideological differences. Then of course, the Alawite and Shiite militias will continue fighting for their piece of the outcome as well. Also, there is a real possibility that Türkiye will use this period of instability to attack the Kurds to expand its buffer zone, which will lead to more unrest and could trigger more actions by the United States both in defense of the Kurds and against actions in eastern Syria by Islamic State forces.
Therefore, although President Biden rightly said, “A fall of the regime is a fundamental act of justice,” it does not mean peace for that war-torn country will happen but more likely the dictator’s fall adds more instability to the troubled region plagued by a host of disparate forces. For the U.S., this quagmire ought to be avoided if possible.
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