The relationship between the United States and Iran is at one of its most dangerous points in decades. Though the two countries are engaged in indirect negotiations, the simultaneous military confrontation has led many observers to describe the fragile ceasefire that had reduced fighting earlier this year as largely broken down.
After Iran allegedly shot down a U.S. Army AH-64 Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the U.S. responded with targeted airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, coupled with warnings that further military action remains possible while diplomatic talks continue.
Publicly, Trump remains optimistic about reaching an agreement "soon," but Bob Maginnis says Iran remains committed to one clear strategic objective: survival.
"That's always been their intention," he tells AFN. "That translates to victory for them."
"Strategically for us, Trump has laid out a number of markers: no nuclear weapons … marginal or no missile capability," Maginnis continues. "He would like them in the Abraham Accords. Of course, they won't do that because of the current regime. He's hinted at wanting regime change and an election, but I don't think that's going to happen. So it really comes down to who caves first."
While he knows Trump could destroy Iran's electric grid and key bridges, Maginnis knows the president is under a lot of pressure both geopolitically and domestically.
"I think that he is being backed in a corner to a certain degree because he's not going to be able to accomplish anything if in the last two years of his presidency, he doesn't have a majority in the House and the Senate," the defense analyst asserts, also noting that "public opinion is not in the president's favor on this war at the present time."
In the end, Maginnis believes the outcome will hinge less on military capability than on which side can sustain pressure the longest without yielding.
