When the U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, it is not surprising that China condemned the campaign as a violation of sovereignty and warned against "regime change." This is no surprise because, as The National Interest reports, roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports have flowed to China in recent years, often at discounted rates that helped Beijing buffer sanctions risk and price volatility.
Forbes reports that, despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it appears Beijing is calling for de-escalation, suggesting that they do not have an “economic incentive nor the strategic military bandwidth to stick its neck out for Tehran.”
Meanwhile, Reuters reports that Japan is concerned what this means for defense in their area of the world if the U.S. were to move its ships and missiles from their local bases. Taiwan is particularly concerned that a long conflict would harm “stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific,” expecting Beijing to make a move against the island nation.
Robert Maginnis is a national defense analyst and president of Maginnis Strategies, LLC. He says that the Chinese are unhappy campers.
"Two years ago, they signed a strategic agreement with Iran. That's why much of the oil that has been flowing from Iran out through the Strait of Hormuz is going to China, and China doesn't want to lose that," informs Maginnis.
Meanwhile, Maginnis says the Chinese may be thinking about finally moving on Taiwan.
"I would say it's more likely. Yes, we are draining a lot of munitions, and we're diverting those from different theaters,” states Maginnis. “We've been trying to build up in the Far East to counter a potential assault by the Chinese."
Maginnis says, however, that at the same time, an invasion of Taiwan may be a bit premature.
"Xi is trying to clean house. He's fired a bunch of generals, and he's not sure he has the allegiance of his own PLA (People's Liberation Army). So, China has its issues, but I think it's looking at the clock and recognizing that, perhaps, the time shouldn't be delayed much longer," concludes Maginnis.
