The United States is stepping up pressure on Iran and has ordered the deployment of additional forces to the area under the U.S. Central Command. Observers point to the possibility that the United States could seize Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, the export hub the Iranian regime uses to send its oil around the world.
In an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, President Donald Trump compared the situation in Iran to Venezuela, where the United States carried out a quick and successful military operation in January.
"To be honest with you, my favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran," he said.
Since then, the president's political friends and enemies alike have voiced concern that the conflict in Iran has turned into a "war for oil."
That became a common critique against President George W. Bush among some politicians, analysts, and activists during the Iraq War after 9/11. But retired U.S. Marine Col. Grant Newsham points out that if Trump were to successfully seize Kharg Island, he would have an ace up his sleeve.
"When you have control over a good chunk of the world's oil, or the people who produce it, that gives you political influence over countries like Iran, China, even Russia to a degree, but certainly Cuba as well," he points out.
As analysts also debate whether seizing Kharg Island would qualify as "boots on the ground," shorthand for a long and involved war, which is something Trump specifically campaigned against in the run-up to his second term, Newsham says the numbers of troops in or on their way to the region are nowhere near what would be needed for an invasion.
"At best we're talking about some short-term raids, places to take or control a piece of territory or to grab something," Newsham asserts.
At this point in the campaign, he sees nothing that would point to an Iraq or Afghanistan-style war with no end in sight.
"It's not a war exactly for oil in the sense that you would hear at say a No King's protest," he tells AFN. "It is a way to give America the ability to influence its enemies."
