The strategy is this: Harris doesn’t have to appeal to a lot of Republican-leaning churchgoers. She just needs to win over a few, David Brody, chief political analyst for the Christian Broadcast Network, said on American Family Radio Wednesday.
The group “Evangelicals for Harris” was scheduled to drop its first media spot on Wednesday, Harris reported on X early the same morning.
The 34-second clip opens with Billy Graham asking, “Have you been to the cross and said, Lord, I have sinned; I'm sorry for my sin; I'm willing to change my way of life?”
It shifts to interviewer Frank Luntz asking GOP nominee Donald Trump, at the Family Leadership Summit in Ames, Iowa, if he’s ever asked God for forgiveness.
Trump responds: “That’s a tough question. I’m not sure I have. I just don’t bring God into that picture. I don’t.”
The spot fades to a silent panel asking, “Is there any greater denial of Christ...than to say I do not need his forgiveness?”
The ad, which clearly slams Trump's faith, doesn’t address the faith of its own candidate, Harris.
Her little-discussed policies favor abortion without restrictions and a transgender movement that allows biological males in female bathrooms and dressing areas.
The changing Evangelical landscape
Still, that type of message might be enough to sway churchgoers at a time that some Harris policies aren’t so shocking for some congregations.
Multiple mainline protestant denominations have struggled with how to address the gender issue.
And it won’t take many Evangelicals to sway the election, Brody told show host Jenna Ellis.
“If its 1%, 2% or whatever, that translates to 10,000 or 20,000 more votes. If it’s that amount of Evangelicals in swing states, that could make the difference,” he said. “Elections are won in the margins.”
Brody noted that Barack Obama won the White House with 26% of the Evangelical vote, Joe Biden with roughly 24%.
When Trump won in 2016, Hillary Clinton gained just 6%, he said.
“The magic number seems to be around 20%," he observed. "Twenty percent would probably be good, but if Kamala Harris can go a little bit north of that she’s probably going to win the presidency.”
The Evangelicals for Harris push should be a “big concern for the Trump campaign,” Brody said.
There are similar groups working to convince Christians to go with Harris, but Evangelicals for Harris appears to be the first to strike.
The website says, “Kamala’s life of public service is a reflection of her faith in Christ.”
The ads will target Christian media, Brody said.
“Ultimately what they're hoping to tap into here is not just it's not about policy. They understand clearly that this idea of Matthew 25 and the social justice gospel and the compassion isn't really going to do it for conservative Evangelicals overall. That's not what's going to attract them,” he said.
'Trump Fatigue' factor at play
But what may attract some Evangelical voters is Trump fatigue.
“They’re worn out by it all, the drama for the last X amount of years. They may not be all that enthused with Kamala Harris but they’re definitely checked out on Donald Trump,” Brody said.
That appears to be the motivation for David French, the former National Review writer who became one of the most famous "Never Trump" conservatives in 2016.
Now a New York Times columnist thanks to his political stance, French's op-ed in the Times encouraged voting for Kamala Harris in an effort to burn conservatism to the ground so that it might rebuild.
“I don’t know whether some of these disaffected so-called conservatives were snubbed by Trump in the past or whether they have to stake out a different piece of ideological real estate so their voice can be heard. They mostly suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome,” Washington Times columnist Robert Knight told AFN.
Taking conservatism to a lower point may help it rise to rediscover the glory years of former President Ronald Reagan, French wrote.
“To invoke Reagan is to strike one of the mystic chords of memory for when America was perceived to be on its way up and great. I’m not surprised that people who are now suggesting that Christians support the Democrats invoke Reagan. It’s one way to make them sound reasonable,” Knight said.
Trump likely has the evangelical vote in the bag but he doesn’t have the margin in the bag, Brody said.
Meanwhile, Trump and his campaign aren't helping raise the margin, whether it’s leading a re-written GOP platform to deemphasize abortion and traditional marriage; or refusing to answer how he’ll vote on a controversial abortion amendment in his home state of Florida; or criticizing prominent Christian leaders who endorsed his rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Brody, who knows Trump personally, says the Trump campaign sees abortion as a “political loser” for Republicans.
Regardless of how the country feels on the topic, Trump approaches abortion with pragmatism, not passion, and that angers many Evangelicals who are emotionally invested.
“Trump has always been not as much ideological, but more practical, right? It’s the art of the deal. He believes in the life issue but he also sees it in practical terms,” Brody said.
With the election approaching, Brody doesn’t expect Trump to shift and start talking about abortion.
Firing up a different GOP base
It may prove perilous, but the Trump campaign also is not targeting Evangelicals right now.
“The Trump campaign has clearly made a decision to go in another direction and it's not necessarily to go to the squishy middle," Brody said. "It’s about energizing a little bit more of that different type of base that they think they have whether it be the black vote, Hispanics, softies, independents … they’re going in that direction. They want a younger crowd. They want to get the Gen Z vote up."
As far as Evangelicals, the Trump campaign believes their candidate “has a track record, which he does. They’re hoping that will be enough.”
