The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting the smallest output of wheat in over 50 years, reports The Wall Street Journal (WSJ). In a monthly report, the USDA found that their current forecast of wheat output was down by 7 million bushels from what they predicted in June.
Now, the USDA expects their output at 1.536 billion bushels. Analysts surveyed by WSJ, however, believe it will be 1.52 billion bushels.
Dr. Steve Martin is the extension professor of Department of Agricultural Economics at Mississippi State University.
"We've had really good crop years in the South and in the Midwest with corn and soybeans. We've got good supplies globally. But wheat is kind of a different deal. They've had some drought in that area, not just this year, but in the last few years,” Martin states.
He says that wheat became a little unprofitable, resulting in acreage and yields being cut back.
“And then, of course, there's a lot of wheat exports out of that part of the world where the wars have been going, specifically Russia and Ukraine. Those are big wheat producing countries," Martin says.
According to CropReview, wheat is the fourth largest U.S. crop in total harvested acreage. Wheat production is concentrated in the Plains because of climate favorability — winter wheat in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, and spring wheat in North Dakota and Montana.
Martin says there could be some price increases in wheat, which would be good for farmers.
"At the end of the day, though, if you get higher wheat prices, you're going to have higher bread. You make flour, bread, anything that's done with that," Martin states.
Some farmers, he says, are reluctant to plant wheat as prices have been weak. Some farmers will plant wheat along with another crop when prices are high enough, in a process known as double cropping.
