There remain many issues that could derail the truce — as well as negotiations for broader deal to permanently end the war.
Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency, close to the Revolutionary Guard, claimed that talks set for Saturday wouldn’t happen unless Israel stopped its attacks in Lebanon. And U.S. President Donald Trump complained that Iran was “doing a very poor job” by not allowing the free flow of ships through the strait, through which 20% of the world’s traded oil once passed.
Kuwait, meanwhile, said it faced a drone attack Thursday night that it blamed on Iran and its militia allies in the region. Though Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard denied launching any assault, it has carried out attacks across the Mideast in the past that it did not claim.
And yet, preparations for the talks between Iran and the U.S. in Pakistan appeared to move forward, with U.S. Vice President JD Vance set to take off from Washington. Negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, meanwhile, are expected to begin next week in Washington, according to a U.S. official and a person familiar with the plans, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the delicacy of the matter.
Israel and Lebanon will have direct negotiations
Israel’s insistence that the ceasefire in Iran does not include a pause in its fighting with Hezbollah, which joined the war in support of its backer, Iran, has threatened to end the deal.
The day the truce was announced, Israel pounded Beirut with airstrikes.
Trump said Thursday that he has asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to dial back the strikes. Early Friday, Israel’s military said it hit approximately 10 launchers in Lebanon that had fired rockets toward northern Israel a day earlier.
Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, warned Thursday that continued Israeli attacks on Hezbollah would bring “explicit costs and STRONG responses.”
Netanyahu, meanwhile, said that he authorized the negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible” with the aim of disarming Hezbollah terrorists and establishing relations between the neighbors, which have technically been at war since Israel was established in 1948.
The Lebanese government had not responded as of early afternoon Friday. The timing and location of the talks were first reported by Axios.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a sticking point
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices skyrocketing, driven stocks down and roiled the world economy. Tehran's control over the waterway has proved its biggest strategic advantage in the war.
The spot price of Brent crude, the international standard, was around $97 Friday, up more than 30% since the war started.
Before the conflict, over 100 ships passed through the strait each day — many carrying oil to Asia. With the ceasefire in place, only 12 have been recorded passing through.
Underscoring the precarious situation, a Botswana-flagged liquefied natural gas tanker attempted to travel out of the Persian Gulf via a route ordered by the Revolutionary Guard, but suddenly turned around early Friday, ship-tracking data showed.
The head of the United Arab Emirates’ major oil company, Sultan al-Jaber, said some 230 ships loaded with oil were waiting to get through the strait and must be allowed “to navigate this corridor without condition.”
U.S. President Donald Trump complained about that situation, writing on his social media platform: “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz.”
“That is not the agreement we have!” Trump wrote of the trickle of ships Iran has allowed to pass.
