Monday’s vote is not a direct referendum on independence. Alberta, home to most of Canada’s proven oil reserves — the fourth largest in the world — will decide whether to remain a province or begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation.
More than 1.35 million Albertans, or 43% of eligible voters, cast advance or special ballots ahead of the referendum, far exceeding the 810,000 who voted early in the 2023 provincial election.
But even if Albertans reject the proposal, separatist leaders say the movement that has transformed a fringe cause into a force in provincial politics is not going away.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney urged Albertans not to take the outcome for granted and asked for a decisive result as he wrapped up two days of campaigning in his home province.
“Vote like Canada’s future depends on it because it does,” Carney told a pro-Canada rally Friday in Edmonton, where he grew up.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who called the referendum despite opposing independence, recently cited a poll showing just 22% support for separation, a figure she said was still too high.
Smith opposes separation
Smith called a referendum she opposes, reflecting pressure from separatist activists within her governing United Conservative Party who helped bring her to power. Some of those activists helped oust former Premier Jason Kenney in 2022.
Kenney said separatism had traditionally been a fringe cause, with independence parties typically attracting only 1% or 2% of the vote. He said the pandemic mobilized activists angry over public health restrictions and government authority.
Separatist leader Jeff Rath said federal COVID-19 vaccine mandates drove him toward independence, while Tanya Clemens, co-chair of Let Alberta Decide, said pandemic restrictions spurred political organizing. Keith Wilson, the group’s other co-chair, was a lead lawyer for the 2022 trucker convoy that paralyzed downtown Ottawa for weeks in a protest against vaccine mandates and other COVID-19 restrictions.
Alberta’s grievances center around energy policies
Wilson argues that Alberta’s grievances go deeper. With much of Canada’s population concentrated in Ontario and Quebec, he said Liberal governments can win elections without significant support in Alberta, leaving the province vulnerable to federal policies opposed by its energy industry.
Wilson argues that Carney’s proposed Pacific Link pipeline illustrates the dysfunction, saying federal restrictions have discouraged private investment and could leave taxpayers financing the project.
Wilson rejects Alberta becoming an American state.
“I have no interest in substituting a master, that rules over my children’s future, who’s in Ottawa, with a new one who’s in Washington,” he said.
Other separatist leaders have sought contact with the Trump administration. Rath and fellow independence advocates met three times with U.S. State Department officials in Washington to discuss Alberta’s future.
Separatists see success even without victory
Wilson said the referendum campaign had generated unprecedented discussion about Alberta’s place in Canada.
“I think we’ve already hit success when you look at the voter turnout,” he said. “People are engaged and people are talking about this topic at a level that’s unprecedented historically.”
Rath said he would be thrilled if 30% of Albertans voted to begin the separation process, even without a majority. He wants Smith ousted as UCP leader and said the party could splinter, potentially creating a new pro-independence political party.
